The Euro Deflation Crisis

2 Jun

A specter is haunting Europe — the specter of deflation. Countries throughout the European Union have been struggling for the past several years with stagnant or falling prices. In Hungary, inflation has fallen to its lowest level since 1974. In Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, and Latvia, consumer prices fell on a year-over-year basis in 2013. Over the same period, consumer prices remained static in Portugal and Spain, and they rose by the statistically insignificant rate of 0.5 percent in Denmark, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Sweden. Aggregate inflation in the EU has declined to a five-year low of 0.5 percent, well below the target of two percent set by the European Central Bank ECB.As long as incomes remain stable, deflation has a positive impact on consumers’ purchasing power; they can buy more goods and services as prices fall. Their savings also increase in value as prices decline, unless banks begin to charge negative interest rates — basically, a fee for holding money. But deflation can be devastating for citizens with loans: as the value of their money remains stagnant or even decreases, they must continue to meet their debt obligations, the nominal value of which does not change. At the same time, whatever assets they have pledged as loan collateral decline in price, prompting lenders to demand further security against default. Deflation is also bad news for individuals and companies who do business across borders. Imports may become more expensive, and exports can generate lower revenues. Deflation also threatens citizens and companies with loans and other credit facilities.For evidence of the ill effects of deflation, look to Japan in the 1990s, which closely resembles Europe today. There, too, the financial sector struggled under a large burden of bad loans. Like Europe, Japan also faced an aging population that consumed less. Another disquieting similarity is that the ECB, like its Japanese counterpart, seems unwilling to dramatically counteract these ominous monetary trends. The ECB has some reasons for its reticence — but they aren’t good enough.MISSED OPPORTUNITIESThe ECB has already missed its best opportunity to effectively ease Europe’s money supply to counteract deflation. Two years ago, inflation in Europe dipped below the central bank’s two-percent target, and the European economy was at the lowest point of its four-year downturn. But the ECB was strongly influenced by Germany’s Bundesbank, which has historically been much more concerned about inflation than deflation. Now that the economy has started to revive and inflation has likely reached its lowest point, monetary expansion would not have much of a positive impact, at least not for Europe’s leading economies.

via Petr Polak | The Euro Deflation Crisis | Foreign Affairs | Foreign Affairs.

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